Number Crunch: Global Energy 2040

The International Energy Agency World Energy Outlook report is a kind of oracle for future energy and climate forecasting. This year, the report looks ahead to our prospects through to 2040. Here are some highlights.

Global Energy Highlights

1. Global energy demand is set to grow by 37% by 2040, but the world economy is less energy-intensive than it used to be. This effectively means more bang for our buck, which is good.
2. World electricity demand increases by almost 80% over the period 2012-2040. This means global prosperity is rising, which is also good.
3. By 2040, the world’s energy supply mix divides into four almost-equal parts: oil, gas, coal and low-carbon sources (including hydro, nuclear, biofuels, solar and wind). Although low carbon sources will make great headway, they are still a long way off coming close to replacing coal, oil and gas.
4. The world cannot emit more than around 1000G/t of CO2 from 2014 onwards. This entire budget will be used up by 2040. Yikes. This is scary, considering the point above.
5. Emissions rise by 20% to 2040, putting the world on track for a long-term global temperature increase of 3.6 °C. Even more scary.
6. Increasing power sector decarbonisation by about 25% by 2040 will take the world to around half way to its target of 2 °C target. MUCH more ambition needed here.

Note: “Energy” includes electricity, heat and transport. “Electricity” means power generation.

Further reading:

IEA Fact sheet on nuclear

IEA World Energy Outlook Executive Summary