The International Energy Agency World Energy Outlook report is a kind of oracle for future energy and climate forecasting. This year, the report looks ahead to our prospects through to 2040. Here are some highlights.
Global Energy Highlights
- Global energy demand is set to grow by 37% by 2040, but the world economy is less energy-intensive than it used to be. This effectively means more bang for our buck, which is good.
- World electricity demand increases by almost 80% over the period 2012-2040. This means global prosperity is rising, which is also good.
- By 2040, the world’s energy supply mix divides into four almost-equal parts: oil, gas, coal and low-carbon sources (including hydro, nuclear, biofuels, solar and wind). Although low carbon sources will make great headway, they are still a long way off coming close to replacing coal, oil and gas.
- The world cannot emit more than around 1000G/t of CO2 from 2014 onwards. This entire budget will be used up by 2040. Yikes. This is scary, considering the point above.
- Emissions rise by 20% to 2040, putting the world on track for a long-term global temperature increase of 3.6 °C. Even more scary.
- Increasing power sector decarbonisation by about 25% by 2040 will take the world to around half way to its target of 2 °C target. MUCH more ambition needed here.
Note: “Energy” includes electricity, heat and transport. “Electricity” means power generation.
IEA World Energy Outlook Executive Summary